Identification of Key Drivers and Influential Actors on Social Security in Spontaneous Urban Settlements with a Foresight Approach (Case Study: Islamabad Neighborhood in Karaj City)
The rapid growth of urbanization over the past three decades, coupled with increased rural migration to cities, has led to the expansion of spontaneous settlements and informal housing in Iranian cities. These settlements, particularly in the Islamabad neighborhood of Karaj, face challenges such as inadequate welfare facilities, poor environmental conditions, and rising social insecurity. This research aims to identify the key drivers and influential actors affecting social security in Islamabad, with the goal of improving the neighborhood's quality of life. The study is applied in nature and employs a descriptive-analytical methodology, utilizing a foresight approach. Factors were initially identified using the Delphi method, and after expert validation, structural analysis was conducted using the MicMac method to extract drivers. The Mactor software was then used to analyze the behavior of key actors influencing these drivers. Findings reveal that economic poverty, lack of urban infrastructure, and absence of planning for organizing these areas are primary factors undermining social security. Enhancing social capital and developing comprehensive programs for organizing spontaneous settlements can improve social security. The critical role of urban institutions and resident participation in implementing these programs are key findings. Improving social security in such settlements requires precise planning, active community involvement, and strengthened urban infrastructure, which can enhance quality of life and reduce social deviations.
Kozehgar, L. , Fanni, Z. , Niknami, N. and Saeedi, S. (2026). Identification of Key Drivers and Influential Actors on Social Security in Spontaneous Urban Settlements with a Foresight Approach (Case Study: Islamabad Neighborhood in Karaj City). Spatial Planning, (), -. doi: 10.22108/sppl.2026.144495.1835
MLA
Kozehgar, L. , , Fanni, Z. , , Niknami, N. , and Saeedi, S. . "Identification of Key Drivers and Influential Actors on Social Security in Spontaneous Urban Settlements with a Foresight Approach (Case Study: Islamabad Neighborhood in Karaj City)", Spatial Planning, , , 2026, -. doi: 10.22108/sppl.2026.144495.1835
HARVARD
Kozehgar, L., Fanni, Z., Niknami, N., Saeedi, S. (2026). 'Identification of Key Drivers and Influential Actors on Social Security in Spontaneous Urban Settlements with a Foresight Approach (Case Study: Islamabad Neighborhood in Karaj City)', Spatial Planning, (), pp. -. doi: 10.22108/sppl.2026.144495.1835
CHICAGO
L. Kozehgar , Z. Fanni , N. Niknami and S. Saeedi, "Identification of Key Drivers and Influential Actors on Social Security in Spontaneous Urban Settlements with a Foresight Approach (Case Study: Islamabad Neighborhood in Karaj City)," Spatial Planning, (2026): -, doi: 10.22108/sppl.2026.144495.1835
VANCOUVER
Kozehgar, L., Fanni, Z., Niknami, N., Saeedi, S. Identification of Key Drivers and Influential Actors on Social Security in Spontaneous Urban Settlements with a Foresight Approach (Case Study: Islamabad Neighborhood in Karaj City). Spatial Planning, 2026; (): -. doi: 10.22108/sppl.2026.144495.1835
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