University of Isfahan Spatial Planning 2228-7485 16 3 2026 09 23 Foresight of the Saffron Value Chain in the Face of Climate Change and Global Market Fluctuations in Qaen County Foresight of the Saffron Value Chain in the Face of Climate Change and Global Market Fluctuations in Qaen County 1 28 30513 10.22108/sppl.2026.148989.1890 FA Zahra Ghaffari Moghaddam Assistant professor, Agriculture Institute, Research Institute of Zabol, Zabol, Iran Ali Sardarshahraki Professor of Agricultural Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran, and Saffron Institute, University of Torbat Heydarieh, Torbat Heydarieh, Iran Mohammad Hajipour Associate professor, Department of Geography, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran Journal Article 2026 05 23 Abstract Saffron as a strategic agricultural and pharmaceutical commodity plays a vital role in Iran’s agricultural economy and non-oil exports. With Iran accounting for over 96% of global saffron production, the country holds the most influential position in the international supply of this product. However, in recent years, the saffron value chain has encountered a range of complex economic, environmental, and structural challenges that have threatened its sustainability and competitiveness. The present study aimed to identify key drivers and develop future scenarios for the saffron value chain. Adopting a foresight approach, this research employed a survey-based methodology. Data were collected through questionnaires and semi-structured interviews with 20 experts in the saffron sector during 2024–2025. The data were analyzed by using structural analysis and Scenario Wizard software. The results indicated that global price fluctuations, competition from rival countries, trade restrictions (sanctions), shifting consumer preferences, and expansion of e-commerce constituted the primary drivers shaping the saffron value chain. In addition, climatic variables—particularly recurrent droughts—acted as critical limiting factors affecting production sustainability. Ultimately, 7 compatible scenarios were developed, among which 3 principal scenarios were identified: "relatively stable", "competitive with growth opportunities", and "challenging". The findings suggested that while most probable futures were situated within moderate or favorable conditions, intensification of international competition and economic instability could undermine Iran’s global position in the saffron market. In conclusion, this research underscored the necessity of scenario-based policymaking, strengthened branding efforts, adoption of modern marketing strategies, and enhanced resilience of the saffron value chain in the face of future uncertainties. Keywords: Saffron Value Chain, Foresight, Structural Analysis, Scenario Planning. Introduction Saffron, recognized as the world’s most expensive spice and a strategic commodity within Iran’s non-oil export portfolio, occupies a distinguished position in the country’s agricultural economy. With a share exceeding 96% of global saffron production and the advantage of several millennia of indigenous cultivation knowledge, Iran appears to hold an unparalleled competitive edge. Nevertheless, evidence indicates that the value chain of this product has encountered numerous structural, environmental, and economic challenges in recent years, which have seriously threatened both production sustainability and Iran’s standing in international markets. Despite being the world’s primary saffron supplier, Iran captures only a modest share of the final value added—a consequence largely attributed to raw material exports, absence of robust national branding, severe price volatility, and inequitable competition in global markets. Compounding these economic difficulties, climate change—manifested through declining rainfall, deteriorating groundwater quality, and recurrent drought episodes in key production regions, such as Greater Khorasan and Qaenat County—has further endangered production security. The current saffron value chain constitutes a complex and interconnected system, in which even minor fluctuations in a single variable—such as exchange rates or precipitation levels—can reverberate throughout the entire chain. Consequently, the lack of a comprehensive and forward-looking analytical framework capable of assessing the interactions among these economic and environmental variables represents a significant gap in macro-level planning. Materials & Methods This research adopted a strategic foresight approach, employing a combination of structural analysis and scenario-building methodologies to elucidate the dynamics of the saffron value chain in Qaenat County. The research implementation process comprised two complementary stages: Structural Analysis of the System (Modeling Influence and Dependence Dynamics) In this stage, MICMAC software was utilized to accurately identify key variables and map the structure of their interrelationships. The operational procedure included the following steps: Expert panel formation:A Delphi-based approach was employed, drawing upon specialists in agriculture, economics, market analysis, and policymaking. Direct impact matrix:Experts assessed the pairwise relationships among the drivers within an n×n matrix. Scores were assigned on a scale from 0 (no influence) to 3 (strong influence), allowing for a systematic determination of the impact of each variable on others. Output analysis:By calculating row sums (influence power) and column sums (dependence power) within the software, the position of each variable on the strategic map of the system was determined. This analysis enabled identification of "key" drivers—characterized by high influence and high dependence—that exerted the greatest shaping force on the future of the value chain, distinguishing them from other variables. Scenario Building Based on Cross-Impact Balance (CIB) Logic Following the identification of key drivers, Scenario Wizard software was employed to construct alternative futures, moving beyond linear prediction. The steps in this phase were as follows: Defining plausible states:For each key driver, possible states—favorable, intermediate, and unfavorable—were defined based on upstream policy documents and expert judgment. Measuring cross-impacts:Through a comparative questionnaire, experts scored the intensity and direction of interactions among the different states of key factors on a scale from +3 to −3, where positive values denoted mutual reinforcement and negative values indicated mutual weakening. Extracting consistent scenarios:Using the Cross-Impact Balance algorithm, the software assessed the internal consistency of the defined states. The output of this model consisted of scenarios that were logically coherent and collectively represented "plausible and consistent futures" for the saffron value chain on the 1405 horizon (2026–2027). Research Findings The findings derived from the structural exploration and relationship network analysis revealed that the saffron value chain in Qaenat County exhibited remarkably high dynamism. Based on the data extracted from the cross-impact matrix, the system demonstrated a 70% saturation level, indicating strong interconnections among its components—such that any change in a key element rapidly propagated across all dimensions of the system. The distribution of variables on the influence–dependence plane further underscored the system's high sensitivity to external drivers. Among these, "global price fluctuations" and "competition from rival countries" were identified as the most powerful driving forces, exerting a guiding influence on the future trajectory of the system. Climatic factors, such as "drought and reduced rainfall", while highly influential, acted more as contextual variables due to their stable and long-term nature, providing a risk backdrop that amplified the effects of economic drivers. In line with this structural analysis, examination of the logical space of future possibilities delineated a broad configuration for the future of the saffron value chain. Among all possible combinations of states for the key drivers—encompassing favorable, intermediate, and unfavorable conditions—7 highly consistent scenarios were extracted. Statistical analysis of these scenarios indicated a favorable potential for the development of the saffron value chain in the region: 74% of probable configurations fell within the favorable state, 21% corresponded to the intermediate state (representing a continuation of the status quo with modest growth), and only 5% were classified as unfavorable. This probability distribution suggested that, despite serious climatic threats, the inherent economic capacities and opportunities arising from modern marketing approaches could effectively offset negative environmental impacts. Accordingly, 3 selected key scenarios with the highest structural consistency are elaborated below to inform future planning: Scenario 2 (Relative Stability and Gradual Strengthening of the Value Chain): This scenario presented the most realistic mid-term outlook, promising a combination of stable global prices and gradual improvements in export infrastructure. Under these conditions, competition with rival countries—such as Afghanistan and Spain—reached a point of equilibrium, while the Qaenat saffron brand supported by modern marketing strategies and e-commerce platforms succeeded in maintaining its market share. In this scenario, the value chain transitioned away from its traditional state toward greater digitalization though changes occurred incrementally and without major economic shocks. Relative exchange-rate stability played a pivotal role in enhancing predictability of profitability for farmers and provided a conducive environment for local investment in processing industries. Scenario 3 (Growth Opportunity and Competitiveness): This scenario portrayed a highly dynamic and competitive future, in which innovation and quality took precedence. Despite intensified international competition, global demand for high-quality saffron continued to rise. The adoption of modern technologies in processing and packaging facilitated the creation of substantial value added within the chain. Shifting consumer preferences toward organic products and those with geographical traceability presented an unparalleled opportunity for Qaenat to establish itself as the global hub of premium saffron. Under these conditions, the value chain—through alternative markets and digital trade platforms—generated new revenue streams and demonstrated considerable resilience against trade restrictions and sanctions. Scenario 7 (Challenging): This scenario depicted a situation in which the convergence of international economic pressures and severe fluctuations in global prices drove the system toward instability. In this future, escalating production costs resulting from sanctions and exchange-rate volatility coupled with declining purchase prices due to market saturation by competitors severely undermined the profit margins of Qaenat producers. This scenario served as a warning that, in the absence of proactive defensive strategies—such as the establishment of price-support funds, aggressive branding initiatives, and institutional synergy—the value chain might face structural disruption and lose its central role in the regional economy and livelihoods. Discussion of Results & Conclusion The final analyses of this research, which integrated structural analysis (MICMAC) and scenario-building approaches, indicated that the future of the saffron value chain in Qaenat County was concurrently shaped by climatic constraints and global market dynamics. The findings confirmed that while climatic factors—particularly drought and reduced rainfall—acted as structural and unavoidable limitations on production capacity, economic variables and market conditions played the decisive role in determining the success or failure of the chain in the long term. In effect, the structure of the saffron value chain in Qaenat was no longer solely dependent on production; it had become increasingly contingent upon market conditions. The assessments revealed that variables, such as global price fluctuations, international competition, exchange rate volatility, and trade sanctions, were the primary determinants shaping the future of this industry, accounting for over 65% of future changes and fluctuations. In the scenario-building phase, 74% of the extracted scenarios pointed to a favorable future for the chain, suggesting that the saffron value chain of Qaenat, despite external pressures, possessed considerable development potential. However, the remaining 25%—comprising intermediate and challenging scenarios—served as a cautionary reminder that this favorable trajectory would not materialize automatically without deliberate planning. Indeed, achieving such an outcome necessitated a fundamental shift in perspective from "traditional production" toward "active, market-oriented management". The research results underscored that the key to success lay not in expanding cultivated area, but in strengthening the industry's resilience against exchange-rate fluctuations and competitive pressures—a goal that could be pursued through the adoption of modern marketing strategies and effective utilization of e-commerce platforms. Based on these findings, 5 main strategies for developing the saffron value chain in Qaenat are proposed: Branding and Identity-Building: To preserve competitive advantage against emerging rivals, it is essential to register Qaenat saffron with international geographical indications and stringent quality export standards. This would ensure that the real value added of the product accrues to the region itself. Economic Risk Management: Severe fluctuations in global prices and exchange rates pose a serious threat to the livelihoods of small-scale farmers. To address this, establishment of support funds and price-stabilization mechanisms is critical to preventing financial shocks to producers. Development of Digital Marketing: Adoption of e-commerce platforms can reduce unnecessary intermediaries, establishing a direct link between Qaenat producers and global markets. This approach would gradually increase farmers' share of sales profits. Adaptation to Climate Change: Under conditions of limited water resources, smart farm management and improved water-use efficiency represent the primary defensive strategy for sustaining production and coping with environmental challenges. Flexible (Scenario-Based) Policymaking: Policymakers should not rely solely on a single roadmap; rather, they must develop clear operational plans tailored to different conditions—favorable, intermediate, and challenging. This can only be achieved through close collaboration among farmers, exporters, and scientific institutions, ensuring that Qaenat saffron not only survives future turbulence, but also strengthens its global position. Abstract Saffron as a strategic agricultural and pharmaceutical commodity plays a vital role in Iran’s agricultural economy and non-oil exports. With Iran accounting for over 96% of global saffron production, the country holds the most influential position in the international supply of this product. However, in recent years, the saffron value chain has encountered a range of complex economic, environmental, and structural challenges that have threatened its sustainability and competitiveness. The present study aimed to identify key drivers and develop future scenarios for the saffron value chain. Adopting a foresight approach, this research employed a survey-based methodology. Data were collected through questionnaires and semi-structured interviews with 20 experts in the saffron sector during 2024–2025. The data were analyzed by using structural analysis and Scenario Wizard software. The results indicated that global price fluctuations, competition from rival countries, trade restrictions (sanctions), shifting consumer preferences, and expansion of e-commerce constituted the primary drivers shaping the saffron value chain. In addition, climatic variables—particularly recurrent droughts—acted as critical limiting factors affecting production sustainability. Ultimately, 7 compatible scenarios were developed, among which 3 principal scenarios were identified: "relatively stable", "competitive with growth opportunities", and "challenging". The findings suggested that while most probable futures were situated within moderate or favorable conditions, intensification of international competition and economic instability could undermine Iran’s global position in the saffron market. In conclusion, this research underscored the necessity of scenario-based policymaking, strengthened branding efforts, adoption of modern marketing strategies, and enhanced resilience of the saffron value chain in the face of future uncertainties. Keywords: Saffron Value Chain, Foresight, Structural Analysis, Scenario Planning. Introduction Saffron, recognized as the world’s most expensive spice and a strategic commodity within Iran’s non-oil export portfolio, occupies a distinguished position in the country’s agricultural economy. With a share exceeding 96% of global saffron production and the advantage of several millennia of indigenous cultivation knowledge, Iran appears to hold an unparalleled competitive edge. Nevertheless, evidence indicates that the value chain of this product has encountered numerous structural, environmental, and economic challenges in recent years, which have seriously threatened both production sustainability and Iran’s standing in international markets. Despite being the world’s primary saffron supplier, Iran captures only a modest share of the final value added—a consequence largely attributed to raw material exports, absence of robust national branding, severe price volatility, and inequitable competition in global markets. Compounding these economic difficulties, climate change—manifested through declining rainfall, deteriorating groundwater quality, and recurrent drought episodes in key production regions, such as Greater Khorasan and Qaenat County—has further endangered production security. The current saffron value chain constitutes a complex and interconnected system, in which even minor fluctuations in a single variable—such as exchange rates or precipitation levels—can reverberate throughout the entire chain. Consequently, the lack of a comprehensive and forward-looking analytical framework capable of assessing the interactions among these economic and environmental variables represents a significant gap in macro-level planning. Materials & Methods This research adopted a strategic foresight approach, employing a combination of structural analysis and scenario-building methodologies to elucidate the dynamics of the saffron value chain in Qaenat County. The research implementation process comprised two complementary stages: Structural Analysis of the System (Modeling Influence and Dependence Dynamics) In this stage, MICMAC software was utilized to accurately identify key variables and map the structure of their interrelationships. The operational procedure included the following steps: Expert panel formation:A Delphi-based approach was employed, drawing upon specialists in agriculture, economics, market analysis, and policymaking. Direct impact matrix:Experts assessed the pairwise relationships among the drivers within an n×n matrix. Scores were assigned on a scale from 0 (no influence) to 3 (strong influence), allowing for a systematic determination of the impact of each variable on others. Output analysis:By calculating row sums (influence power) and column sums (dependence power) within the software, the position of each variable on the strategic map of the system was determined. This analysis enabled identification of "key" drivers—characterized by high influence and high dependence—that exerted the greatest shaping force on the future of the value chain, distinguishing them from other variables. Scenario Building Based on Cross-Impact Balance (CIB) Logic Following the identification of key drivers, Scenario Wizard software was employed to construct alternative futures, moving beyond linear prediction. The steps in this phase were as follows: Defining plausible states:For each key driver, possible states—favorable, intermediate, and unfavorable—were defined based on upstream policy documents and expert judgment. Measuring cross-impacts:Through a comparative questionnaire, experts scored the intensity and direction of interactions among the different states of key factors on a scale from +3 to −3, where positive values denoted mutual reinforcement and negative values indicated mutual weakening. Extracting consistent scenarios:Using the Cross-Impact Balance algorithm, the software assessed the internal consistency of the defined states. The output of this model consisted of scenarios that were logically coherent and collectively represented "plausible and consistent futures" for the saffron value chain on the 1405 horizon (2026–2027). Research Findings The findings derived from the structural exploration and relationship network analysis revealed that the saffron value chain in Qaenat County exhibited remarkably high dynamism. Based on the data extracted from the cross-impact matrix, the system demonstrated a 70% saturation level, indicating strong interconnections among its components—such that any change in a key element rapidly propagated across all dimensions of the system. The distribution of variables on the influence–dependence plane further underscored the system's high sensitivity to external drivers. Among these, "global price fluctuations" and "competition from rival countries" were identified as the most powerful driving forces, exerting a guiding influence on the future trajectory of the system. Climatic factors, such as "drought and reduced rainfall", while highly influential, acted more as contextual variables due to their stable and long-term nature, providing a risk backdrop that amplified the effects of economic drivers. In line with this structural analysis, examination of the logical space of future possibilities delineated a broad configuration for the future of the saffron value chain. Among all possible combinations of states for the key drivers—encompassing favorable, intermediate, and unfavorable conditions—7 highly consistent scenarios were extracted. Statistical analysis of these scenarios indicated a favorable potential for the development of the saffron value chain in the region: 74% of probable configurations fell within the favorable state, 21% corresponded to the intermediate state (representing a continuation of the status quo with modest growth), and only 5% were classified as unfavorable. This probability distribution suggested that, despite serious climatic threats, the inherent economic capacities and opportunities arising from modern marketing approaches could effectively offset negative environmental impacts. Accordingly, 3 selected key scenarios with the highest structural consistency are elaborated below to inform future planning: Scenario 2 (Relative Stability and Gradual Strengthening of the Value Chain): This scenario presented the most realistic mid-term outlook, promising a combination of stable global prices and gradual improvements in export infrastructure. Under these conditions, competition with rival countries—such as Afghanistan and Spain—reached a point of equilibrium, while the Qaenat saffron brand supported by modern marketing strategies and e-commerce platforms succeeded in maintaining its market share. In this scenario, the value chain transitioned away from its traditional state toward greater digitalization though changes occurred incrementally and without major economic shocks. Relative exchange-rate stability played a pivotal role in enhancing predictability of profitability for farmers and provided a conducive environment for local investment in processing industries. Scenario 3 (Growth Opportunity and Competitiveness): This scenario portrayed a highly dynamic and competitive future, in which innovation and quality took precedence. Despite intensified international competition, global demand for high-quality saffron continued to rise. The adoption of modern technologies in processing and packaging facilitated the creation of substantial value added within the chain. Shifting consumer preferences toward organic products and those with geographical traceability presented an unparalleled opportunity for Qaenat to establish itself as the global hub of premium saffron. Under these conditions, the value chain—through alternative markets and digital trade platforms—generated new revenue streams and demonstrated considerable resilience against trade restrictions and sanctions. Scenario 7 (Challenging): This scenario depicted a situation in which the convergence of international economic pressures and severe fluctuations in global prices drove the system toward instability. In this future, escalating production costs resulting from sanctions and exchange-rate volatility coupled with declining purchase prices due to market saturation by competitors severely undermined the profit margins of Qaenat producers. This scenario served as a warning that, in the absence of proactive defensive strategies—such as the establishment of price-support funds, aggressive branding initiatives, and institutional synergy—the value chain might face structural disruption and lose its central role in the regional economy and livelihoods. Discussion of Results & Conclusion The final analyses of this research, which integrated structural analysis (MICMAC) and scenario-building approaches, indicated that the future of the saffron value chain in Qaenat County was concurrently shaped by climatic constraints and global market dynamics. The findings confirmed that while climatic factors—particularly drought and reduced rainfall—acted as structural and unavoidable limitations on production capacity, economic variables and market conditions played the decisive role in determining the success or failure of the chain in the long term. In effect, the structure of the saffron value chain in Qaenat was no longer solely dependent on production; it had become increasingly contingent upon market conditions. The assessments revealed that variables, such as global price fluctuations, international competition, exchange rate volatility, and trade sanctions, were the primary determinants shaping the future of this industry, accounting for over 65% of future changes and fluctuations. In the scenario-building phase, 74% of the extracted scenarios pointed to a favorable future for the chain, suggesting that the saffron value chain of Qaenat, despite external pressures, possessed considerable development potential. However, the remaining 25%—comprising intermediate and challenging scenarios—served as a cautionary reminder that this favorable trajectory would not materialize automatically without deliberate planning. Indeed, achieving such an outcome necessitated a fundamental shift in perspective from "traditional production" toward "active, market-oriented management". The research results underscored that the key to success lay not in expanding cultivated area, but in strengthening the industry's resilience against exchange-rate fluctuations and competitive pressures—a goal that could be pursued through the adoption of modern marketing strategies and effective utilization of e-commerce platforms. Based on these findings, 5 main strategies for developing the saffron value chain in Qaenat are proposed: Branding and Identity-Building: To preserve competitive advantage against emerging rivals, it is essential to register Qaenat saffron with international geographical indications and stringent quality export standards. This would ensure that the real value added of the product accrues to the region itself. Economic Risk Management: Severe fluctuations in global prices and exchange rates pose a serious threat to the livelihoods of small-scale farmers. To address this, establishment of support funds and price-stabilization mechanisms is critical to preventing financial shocks to producers. Development of Digital Marketing: Adoption of e-commerce platforms can reduce unnecessary intermediaries, establishing a direct link between Qaenat producers and global markets. This approach would gradually increase farmers' share of sales profits. Adaptation to Climate Change: Under conditions of limited water resources, smart farm management and improved water-use efficiency represent the primary defensive strategy for sustaining production and coping with environmental challenges. Flexible (Scenario-Based) Policymaking: Policymakers should not rely solely on a single roadmap; rather, they must develop clear operational plans tailored to different conditions—favorable, intermediate, and challenging. This can only be achieved through close collaboration among farmers, exporters, and scientific institutions, ensuring that Qaenat saffron not only survives future turbulence, but also strengthens its global position.

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