دانشگاه اصفهان برنامه ریزی فضایی 2228-7485 16 3 2026 09 23 Explaining the Effective Drivers of Urban Sprawl and Presenting Countermeasures Using the Importance-Performance Analysis (IPA) Approach (Case Study: Zanjan City) تبیین پیشران‌های مؤثر بر رشد پراکنده‌رویی شهری و ارائه راهکارهای مقابله‌ای با آن با رویکرد IPA (مطالعه موردی: شهر زنجان) 51 76 30423 10.22108/sppl.2026.146491.1858 FA حسین طهماسبی مقدم استادیار گروه جغرافیا، جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران علیرضا احمدی دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران محمدرضا نعمتی دانشجوی دکتری گردشگری، گروه گردشگری، دانشکده علوم جغرافیایی، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران فاطمه بیگدلی دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران ایران Journal Article 2025 09 17 Abstract The issue of urban physical expansion, primarily influenced by urbanization, migration, the growth of transportation networks, and globalization, has become a fundamental challenge in urban planning. If left uncontrolled, it results in increased distances, rising public and private costs, and, most importantly, destruction of natural and agricultural landscapes surrounding built-up areas. One of the major forms of urban physical expansion is urban sprawl, which refers to the low-density, dispersed, and horizontal spread of cities. This study aimed to identify the key drivers of urban sprawl in the city of Zanjan and develop strategies to counteract this phenomenon. In this applied research, a descriptive-analytical method was employed. First, the indicators affecting urban sprawl were identified and extracted through a review of documents related to the subject area. Then, to evaluate the degrees of influence and dependence of these indicators and determine the key drivers, the Cross-Impact Analysis method was applied by distributing questionnaires among experts. After identifying the key drivers of the system, which included population density, land price, zoning, equitable distribution of public services, building density, mixed land use, rural-to-urban migration, and construction monitoring in the urban periphery, the Importance-Performance Analysis (IPA) method was used to formulate strategies to combat urban sprawl. The results of this study indicated that factors like controlling population density, managing rural-to-urban migration, and monitoring construction in the urban periphery were of utmost importance in an effective strategy to counteract sprawl. Regarding the first two factors, there was a significant importance-performance gap in the urban planning of Zanjan. Keywords: Physical Growth, Sprawl, Importance-Performance Analysis, Zanjan City. Introduction Generally, urban sprawl is a term referring to the unplanned or poorly planned, uncontrolled, and uncoordinated low-density expansion of urban land uses into agricultural and forested areas (Sinha, 2018). Urban sprawl, which signifies the conversion of agricultural or natural land into developed areas, is a significant environmental issue stemming from urban growth (Haydar & Hosan, 2025). Cities grew vertically after the Industrial Revolution, but during the second half of the 20th century, a growth pattern emerged in many cities worldwide that was extensive in land use, pushing them further and further outward (Rubiera Morollón et al., 2016). This phenomenon has occurred over the past 50 years in both developed and developing countries and is characterized by the rapid spatial expansion of cities in a dispersed, low-density, and suburban manner. Currently, cities in Iran are also facing this issue as manifested through extensive land-use changes of agricultural areas in peri-urban spaces. The role of Zanjan as a provincial capital and provider of educational, medical, and administrative amenities makes it a population magnet. Urban sprawl in Zanjan, like in many metropolises and provincial capitals of Iran, has become a major challenge. This phenomenon has primarily been shaped by rapid population growth, migration from villages and small towns to the provincial capital, and inappropriate land-use policies. The city of Zanjan has expanded into its surrounding peripheral and agricultural lands. This has led to the loss of fertile agricultural land and alterations to the natural land pattern. Studies indicate that utilizing spatial metrics and precise analytical models can identify the trends of sprawl and facilitate its management. Materials & Methods This research was applied in nature and descriptive-analytical in terms of its methodological approach. From the perspective of data collection, a mixed-methods approach was employed, combining library research and field methods with the participation of 15 urban planning experts over two rounds. First, the key drivers affecting urban sprawl were extracted from previous literature. Then, a researcher-made questionnaire based on the Cross-Impact Analysis (MICMAC) method was used to determine their influence/dependence and identify the key system variables. In the subsequent step, to develop research strategies, the Importance-Performance Analysis (IPA) method was employed. The key drivers were presented to the experts in a questionnaire format, measuring both their importance and their current performance in Zanjan on a 5-point Likert scale. After statistical analysis of the results, the position of each driver was plotted on the importance-performance matrix and the research strategy was formulated accordingly. Research Findings After collecting expert opinions on the drivers, their levels of importance and current performance were scrutinized and the gap between these two metrics was measured for all drivers. Next, the threshold values for system performance and importance were calculated. By plotting the importance-performance chart, the status of each driver was determined based on its position on the matrix. IPA revealed that some drivers held higher priority than others regarding urban sprawl. Focus must be placed on two drivers: controlling rural-to-urban migration and increasing oversight of construction on the urban periphery. These two drivers possessed the highest level of importance for combating urban sprawl, but their current performance in the city was evaluated by experts as below the threshold. Strengthening policies for controlling rural migration and enhancing oversight of peripheral construction could significantly counter urban sprawl. Two drivers, land price and distribution of urban services, held lower priority in addressing urban sprawl in Zanjan. They had low importance within the system. Finally, the drivers of zoning, building density regulations, and mixed land use, although enjoying an adequate level of performance in Zanjan, were deemed by experts to be of lesser importance. This implied that focusing on them, compared to other drivers, would not be highly efficient for combating urban sprawl in Zanjan. Given the relatively small area of Zanjan, absence of significant traffic congestion common in larger metropolises and distances not excessively long, zoning of activities and mixed land use could not prevent travel—by car or even on foot—to the other side of the city to access commercial, recreational, educational, and other services. Discussion of Results & Conclusion The research results indicated that an appropriate strategy to combat urban sprawl involved multi-dimensional and interconnected factors and actions. Strengthening policies for controlling rural migration and enhancing oversight of peripheral construction can significantly counter urban sprawl. While focusing on certain key factors, it is necessary to avoid wasting human and financial resources on factors with lower importance—such as zoning and land-use mixing. Simultaneously, certain effective and highly important factors, for which relatively appropriate performance has already been achieved in Zanjan—such as urban population density—must continue to be monitored and controlled. چکیده موضوع رشد کالبدی شهر عمدتاً متأثر از شهرنشینی، مهاجرت، رشد شبکه‌های حمل‌ونقل و جهانی‌شدن به مسئله‌ای اساسی در برنامه‌ریزی شهری تبدیل شده است؛ زیرا در صورت عدم کنترل به بهای افزایش فواصل، افزایش هزینه‌های دولتی و خصوصی و مهمتر از همه نابودی بافت‌های طبیعی و کشاورزی پیرامون بافت ساخت‌شده تمام می‌شود. یکی از اَشکال عمده رشد کالبدی شهر، پراکنده‌رویی است که به‌معنای گسترش کم‌تراکم، پراکنده و اُفقی شهر است. این مقاله با هدف شناسایی پیشران‌های کلیدی پراکنده‌رویی شهری در شهر زنجان و تدوین استراتژی برای مقابله با این پدیده صورت گرفته است. در این مطالعه کاربردی، از روش توصیفی‌تحلیلی استفاده شده و ابتدا شاخص‌های مؤثر بر پراکنده‌رویی شهری از طریق مطالعه اسناد مرتبط با این حوزه موضوعی شناسایی و استخراج شدند. سپس برای ارزیابی میزان تأثیرگذاری و تأثیرپذیری شاخص‌ها و تعیین پیشران‌های کلیدی به روش تحلیل اثرات متقاطع و از طریق توزیع پرسشنامه میان کارشناسان عمل شد. پس از تعیین پیشران‌های کلیدی سیستم که عبارت بودند از: تراکم جمعیت، قیمت زمین، منطقه‌بندی، توزیع عادلانه خدمات عمومی، تراکم بافت ساختمانی، اختلاط کاربری و مهاجرت روستاییان به شهر و نظارت بر ساخت‌وساز در پیرامون شهر. در گام بعدی برای تدوین استراتژی مقابله با پراکنده‌رویی شهری روش تحلیل اهمیت - عملکرد (IPA) به کار گرفته شد. نتایج تحقیق حاضر نشان دادند عواملی چون کنترل تراکم جمعیت، کنترل مهاجرت‌های روستایی به شهر و نظارت بر ساخت‌‌وساز پیرامون شهر از اهمیت بسیار زیادی در استراتژی مؤثر مقابله با پراکنده‌رویی برخوردارند که درخصوص دو مورد اول شکاف اهمیت - عملکرد در برنامه‌ریزی شهر زنجان وجود دارد.

https://sppl.ui.ac.ir/article_30423_96d3a04e6b6cb2f86c5d1c3ab84671b4.pdf